Despite BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF recording zero inflows for the first time since launch, analysts like Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick remain bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Here's why market watchers believe BTC could still reach $150K by year-end despite recent headwinds.
Key Developments in Bitcoin Markets
ETF Inflows Hit a Wall
- BlackRock's IBIT saw zero inflows on April 24 – its first dry day since January launch
- Only Fidelity (FBTC) and ARK (ARKB) recorded modest inflows ($5.6M and $4.2M respectively)
- Grayscale's GBTC continued outflows (-$130.4M) leading to **$120.6M net outflow** across all 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
👉 Why institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic
Post-Halving Supply Dynamics
- The April 20 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by 50%
- ETF inflows now need to cover just half the previous amount to absorb new supply
- Standard Chartered notes improved global ETF adoption prospects (UK, Hong Kong)
Bullish Signals Amid Market Uncertainty
Standard Chartered's Revised Targets
| Asset | Previous Target | New 2024 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $75,000 | $150,000 |
| Ethereum | $4,000 | $8,000 |
Geoffrey Kendrick cites three key factors supporting higher prices:
- Structural demand from ETFs absorbing market supply
- Cleared leverage after $261M long positions liquidated April 13
- Geopolitical risk premium fading as Middle East tensions stabilize
Market Mechanics Favor Bulls
- "Only half the previous ETF inflows needed post-halving" – Kendrick
- 24/7 crypto markets price in news faster than traditional equities
- Institutional adoption makes BTC behave more like risk assets than safe havens
Challenges to Watch
Regulatory Headwinds
- SEC delays Ethereum ETF decisions (new deadline: June 23)
- Uniswap lawsuit creates DeFi uncertainty
- Rising Treasury yields divert investor capital
👉 How crypto traders are navigating the regulatory landscape
Short-Term Price Action
- BTC briefly fell below $60k amid Middle East tensions
- Typically recovers faster than stocks due to continuous trading
- Current support levels critical for maintaining bullish structure
FAQs: Bitcoin Price Outlook
Q: Why did BlackRock's IBIT see zero inflows?
A: This reflects temporary investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty and ETF demand normalization after initial frenzy.
Q: How does the halving affect Bitcoin's supply?
A: Miner rewards dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, reducing daily new supply from ~900 to ~450 BTC.
Q: What would drive Bitcoin to $150K?
A: Continued ETF adoption, institutional allocation increases, and macroeconomic conditions favoring alternative assets.
Q: Are Ethereum ETFs still likely in 2024?
A: Approval odds appear diminished after SEC delays, though June decisions remain pivotal.
Conclusion: A Measured Bull Case
While short-term ETF flows disappoint, structural factors like the halving and institutional adoption create compelling conditions for Bitcoin's next leg up. As Standard Chartered emphasizes, the key lies in distinguishing temporary headwinds from lasting value propositions in crypto markets.