Authors: Ren Wanwan, Lin Tianhan, Hao Yuqian
Abstract:
This study empirically examines the trade effects and mechanisms of "Silk Road E-Commerce" cooperation using national-monthly-product trade data from 2017–2021. By treating the signing of e-commerce cooperation memoranda as a quasi-natural experiment and applying the difference-in-differences method, we demonstrate that this initiative significantly boosts trade between China and Belt and Road economies. Key findings include:
- Trade Growth: Promotes total trade volume via four channels: cost reduction, digital divide bridging, regulatory convergence, and demand potential release.
- New Trade Models: Accelerates cross-border e-commerce and digital product exports.
- Third-Party Effects: Enhances bilateral trade between partner countries and China’s FTA signatories.
Keywords: Silk Road E-Commerce, Trade Expansion, Cross-Border E-Commerce, Belt and Road Initiative
Introduction
E-commerce innovations like cross-border platforms and overseas warehouses are pivotal for high-quality foreign trade development. However, fragmented global e-commerce rules hinder international cooperation. China’s "Silk Road E-Commerce" initiative (2016) addresses this by fostering bilateral digital collaboration, covering policy alignment, rule harmonization, and capacity building.
Literature Review
E-Commerce Trade Effects:
- Reduces transaction costs (search, information) but faces local consumption biases and regulatory disparities.
International Cooperation:
- Deep trade agreements (e.g., FTAs) with e-commerce clauses mitigate digital trade barriers.
Mechanisms and Hypotheses
Cost Reduction:
- Streamlines trade procedures via e-certification, contracts, and regulatory reforms.
Digital Inclusion:
- Infrastructure investments and technical assistance narrow the digital divide.
Regulatory Harmonization:
- Policy coordination reduces compliance costs and enhances trade predictability.
Demand Stimulation:
- Expands consumer access to diverse markets, boosting import/export margins.
Methodology
Data: China Customs Database (2017–2021), covering 64 Belt and Road economies.
Model:
ln(Totaltrade_{ckpt}) = α + β(treat_c × post_{kpt}) + \text{Fixed Effects} + ε_{ckpt}Variables:
treat_c: 1 if country signed e-commerce MOU.post_{kpt}: 1 post-MOU implementation.
Results
Trade Growth:
- +11.24% total trade (p < 0.01). Stronger for maritime Silk Road and low-income partners.
Mechanisms:
- Cost reduction (+20.6%), digital inclusion (+17.4%), and demand release (+12.7%) drive effects.
Heterogeneity:
- Exports rise via quantity effects; imports benefit from price reductions.
- High-tech/differentiated products see greater export gains.
Further Analysis
Digital Trade:
- Cross-border e-commerce and digital product trade grow +15.3%.
Third-Party Spillovers:
- Partners’ trade with China’s FTA signatories increases +35.3%, highlighting network effects.
Policy Recommendations
- Expand Cooperation: Broaden "Silk Road E-Commerce" nodes globally.
- Deepen Rules Alignment: Adopt high-standard digital trade norms (e.g., CPTPP).
- Leverage Imports: Enhance cross-border platforms to tap demand for differentiated goods.
- Bridge Digital Gaps: Invest in partner countries’ digital infrastructure.
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FAQs
Q1: How does "Silk Road E-Commerce" reduce trade costs?
A1: By standardizing e-documentation, cutting procedural delays, and harmonizing regulations.
Q2: Which countries benefit most?
A2: Low-income and maritime Silk Road economies due to stronger digital inclusion effects.
Q3: Does this initiative impact non-partner countries?
A3: Yes, via third-party spillovers to China’s FTA partners.