According to a report by The Block, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank suggest that the widely anticipated approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week could attract $50 billion to $100 billion in inflows this year.
The bank compared Bitcoin spot ETFs to gold ETFs, noting how these funds revolutionized investor access to the gold market. Specifically, they referenced the first U.S. gold ETF, "SPDR Gold Shares" (GLD), launched in 2004, which remains the largest physically backed gold ETF globally.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Projections and Comparisons
A team of Standard Chartered analysts, led by Geoffrey Kendrick, stated in a Monday report:
"When GLD launched in November 2004, the total value of above-ground gold stocks was approximately $2.2 trillion. By comparison, Bitcoin's current market cap is $0.86 trillion. Adjusting GLD’s $88 billion inflows relative to market cap suggests BTC ETFs could see $34 billion in inflows."
This figure represents the bank’s conservative estimate. In a "high-case" scenario, they project inflows up to $130 billion, with $50–$100 billion in 2024 deemed "reasonable."
Other applicants like VanEck predict $1 billion in initial inflows, growing to $2.4 billion within a quarter. Galaxy Digital estimates $14 billion in first-year inflows, while Bitwise forecasts a $72 billion market within five years.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: A Potential 4.3x Surge
Standard Chartered views Bitcoin spot ETF approval as a "watershed moment" for institutional adoption, predicting significant price appreciation by 2025. The bank drew parallels to gold’s 4.3x price increase over 7–8 years post-GLD launch:
"We expect a similar magnitude of BTC price increases post-ETF approval, but compressed into 1–2 years. This aligns with our $100K year-end 2024 target. If ETF inflows meet expectations, a $200K level by end-2025 is plausible."
The bank previously forecasted Bitcoin reaching $50K in 2023 when it traded near $30K, though BTC peaked at ~$44,800—10% below their target. They’ve also projected Ethereum (ETH) could hit $8,000 by late 2026.
Ethereum Spot ETFs: Q2 Approval Expected
Several firms have applied for Ethereum spot ETFs, which Standard Chartered expects to gain approval in Q2 2024. The bank notes SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s stance that most cryptocurrencies—except Bitcoin—may qualify as securities. However, since ETH wasn’t among the 67 tokens SEC labeled as securities in recent lawsuits, the bank believes "Ethereum ETFs may ultimately be approved."
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FAQs
Q: How much could Bitcoin be worth by 2025 according to Standard Chartered?
A: The bank predicts Bitcoin could reach ~$200,000 by late 2025 if ETF inflows meet projections.
Q: When might Ethereum spot ETFs be approved?
A: Standard Chartered estimates Q2 2024 for Ethereum ETF approvals.
Q: What was Bitcoin’s price when Standard Chartered first predicted $50K?
A: BTC traded near $30K in mid-2023 when the $50K forecast was made.
Q: Why does Standard Chartered compare Bitcoin ETFs to gold ETFs?
A: They highlight how gold ETFs transformed market access, suggesting BTC ETFs could similarly impact institutional adoption.
Q: What’s the "high-case" inflow scenario for Bitcoin ETFs?
A: Up to $130 billion, though $50–$100 billion in 2024 is deemed more likely.
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