Macroeconomic Context
The Federal Reserve has implemented 7 rate hikes this year, totaling 425 basis points. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the cautious stance against premature policy relaxation, emphasizing the need to maintain tightening measures until inflation targets are achieved. According to the latest dot plot projections, the federal funds rate is expected to peak near 5.1% in 2023, with a gradual decline to 4.1% by 2024.
Weekly Market Overview
Key Observations:
- Bearish momentum persists, with lower highs indicating a downtrend continuation.
- BTC/USD remains range-bound between $16,200–$17,000, while ETH/USD consolidates below $1,200.
Critical resistance levels:
- BTC: $17,000–$17,200
- ETH: $1,215
Support zones:
- BTC: $16,200–$16,400
- ETH: $1,070–$1,080
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Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights:
- Price stabilized near $16,500 after last week’s sell-off, forming a temporary base.
- Downward trajectory intact; rallies likely to remain capped below $17,000.
1-Hour Chart Strategy:
- Short-term rebound potential, but weak upward momentum.
- Selling opportunity at $16,800–$17,000 (stop loss: $17,200).
- Target: $16,200–$16,400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights:
- ETH faces sell-side pressure below $1,215**, with risk of breaking **$1,080 support.
- Bearish continuation pattern suggests potential for further declines.
1-Hour Chart Strategy:
- Sell on rallies near $1,195–$1,215 (stop loss: $1,235).
- Target: $1,120–$1,140.
Risk Management & Investor Mindset
"Opportunities favor the prepared mind." — Louis Pasteur
- Avoid herd mentality: Consensus often signals overbought/oversold conditions.
- Discipline over emotion: Stick to predefined entry/exit points.
- Continuous learning: Analyze market cycles and liquidity patterns.
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FAQs
1. Why is the Fed’s policy critical for crypto markets?
Higher interest rates reduce liquidity, amplifying volatility in risk assets like BTC and ETH.
2. What if BTC breaks below $16,000?
A sustained close under $16,000** may trigger panic selling, targeting **$15,500–$15,200.
3. How to identify reversal signals in ETH?
Watch for a daily close above $1,250 with rising volume, indicating short-covering.
4. Are altcoins following BTC’s trend?
Yes, 80% of altcoins correlate strongly with BTC’s momentum during bear markets.
5. Best practices for leverage trading?
- Use ≤5x leverage in high-volatility phases.
- Hedge with stablecoin staking (e.g., USDC/USDT).
Final Thoughts
- Short-term traders: Capitalize on range-bound strategies with tight stop-losses.
- Long-term holders: Accumulate near key support levels ($16,000 BTC / $1,000 ETH).
Disclaimer: This analysis represents the author’s perspective and should not substitute professional financial advice. Conduct independent research before trading.
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