Since the launch of spot ETFs, long-term Bitcoin investors have been selling to institutional players, leading to price stagnation. Analysts suggest this dynamic explains why BTC remains range-bound despite growing institutional adoption.
The Sell-Side Pressure from Long-Term Holders
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards notes that Bitcoin's price has hovered around $100K despite institutional FOMO due to sustained selling by early adopters:
"The OG holders have been unloading their positions to Wall Street since January 2024 ETF approvals," Edwards explained.
Key observations:
- Six-month holder cohorts now absorb all sell pressure from long-term holders
- New corporate treasury buyers completely offset 1.5 years of LTH selling
- Growth rate charts show accelerating institutional accumulation
The Emerging Treasury Flywheel Effect
Edwards identifies a developing market dynamic:
- Corporate Treasury Adoption: Companies adding BTC to balance sheets
- Network Effect: Each new corporate buyer validates the strategy
- Supply Absorption: Institutional demand outstrips LTH selling
Recent entrants include:
- Cardone Capital (real estate)
- ProCap Ventures (planning IPO)
- Panther Metals (mining)
- Green Minerals (Norwegian seabed mining)
Short-Term Market Dynamics
BTSE COO Jeff Mei highlights current trader behavior:
- Profit-taking ahead of July 9 tariff deadlines
- Hedging against potential trade negotiation failures
- Expectation of market stabilization as more long-term holders emerge
HashKey Capital's Han Xu notes macroeconomic factors influencing sentiment:
- Traders awaiting US policy updates
- Tariff negotiations as key risk factor
- Potential for unexpected news to trigger sell-offs
Current Price Action
Bitcoin's trading pattern since May:
- Range-bound between $102K-$110K
- Brief breakouts followed by consolidation
- Current resistance at $108,750 (June 30 high)
Notable developments:
- US spot ETFs: $3.2B inflows in two weeks
- Zero outflow days during this period
- Weekly growth in corporate treasury adoptions
FAQ: Understanding Bitcoin's Price Stagnation
Q: Why isn't Bitcoin price rising despite ETF demand?
A: Early holder selling offsets institutional buying, creating equilibrium.
Q: What's the "treasury flywheel" effect?
A: Corporate adoption creates self-reinforcing demand as each new buyer validates the strategy.
Q: How long might this stagnation last?
A: Until either LTH selling exhausts or institutional demand accelerates further.
Q: What key events could break the price out?
A: Macro policy shifts, trade resolution, or major corporate treasury announcements.
Q: Are ETFs still accumulating during this period?
A: Yes, with $3.2B inflows recently and zero outflow days.